Presenting Author: Daniel Wiese, MA, PhD(c), Temple University

ABSTRACT

Background: Aedes albopictus is one of the main transmitters of the Zika, Dengue etc. Despite the fact of the tropical origin of these diseases, their expansion into temperate areas has already happened. Previous analysis showed that environmental conditions similar to those of the South-East Pennsylvania provide a suitable habitat for A. albopictus, while densely populated areas offer additional opportunities for their distribution, making human the ""primary target."

Objectives: Present research is targeted toward assessing the relative importance of social and environmental variables to understanding the suitability of different areas for the presence of A. albopictus, and how their contribution can improve the modeling of the spatial distribution of this species.

Methods: Machine learning approaches are state of the art in modeling species distribution based on presence data. Previous researches on species distribution modeling, also in the SE Pennsylvania, defined MaxEnt as a well suitable method using environmental, remotely observed data. However, the invasion of A. albopictus into the urban space requires an integration of socio-economic site factors in order to understand the recent patterns of habitat expansion.

Results: Results suggest that the integration of socio-economic factors improve the model and its accuracy. Moreover, socio-economic measures appear to be the strongest predictors for the presence of A. albopictus in densely populated areas of the SE Pennsylvania.

Implications: Present research showed that further analysis of A. albopictus distribution should not be limited to climatic factors only. Additionally, it becomes evident that remotely observed data offer new opportunities analyzing urban public health.

Authors: Daniel Wiese, MA, PhD(c); Victor Hugo Gutierrez-Velez, PhD; Kevin Henry; Heather Murphy; and Ananias Escalante.