Presenting Author: Usama Bilal, MD, MPH, PhD, Drexel University Urban Health Collaborative

ABSTRACT

Background: Neighborhood change is a complex phenomenon representing processes of neighborhood selection and external shocks.

Objectives: To develop a measurement model of neighborhood social and economic change.

Methods: We obtained data for 60 indicators from all census sections (n=2272) in the city of Madrid (Spain). We built a finite mixture model of change for the pre-crisis epoch (2005-2009) and a second model for the crisis epoch (2009-2013), testing for the best number of types in terms of fit, classification, and concordance with a priori theoretical principles.

Results: The final model had 4 types of neighborhood change and included 16 indicators: (Type 1) areas with increased diversity and decreased SES; (Type 2) areas with high residential mobility of young educated people along with new housing construction, and with markers of gentrification in the crisis epoch; (Type 3) areas with increased SES and decreased diversity; and (Type 4) areas with an aging population, low residential mobility and no new construction. These four distinct types showed spatial clustering, with Increasing SES areas dominating the central part of the city. New housing areas became more common in the crisis epoch, taking over parts of downtown that are becoming gentrified. The association with baseline socioeconomic, sociodemographic and urban form indicators reflected increased socioeconomic segregation and gentrifying changes in the downtown area of Madrid after the onset of the crisis.

Implications: These type of measurement models can offer novel opportunities for the study of the consequences of residential environment changes on health behaviors and outcomes.

Authors: Usama Bilal, MD, MPH, PhD; Manuel Franco, MD, PhD; Bryan Lau, PhD; David D. Celentano, ScD; and Thomas A. Glass, PhD.